Is it worth making early transfers in FPL?

In Fantasy Premier League (FPL), managing your budget can be the key to a successful season. One debated strategy involves making transfers early in the week—as early as Sunday or Monday night, before the first raft of price changes—rather than waiting until Saturday morning during the usual deadline.

The idea is to gain an advantage by capturing price rises and avoiding price drops, but does this really provide enough benefit to justify the risks?

Let’s explore the numbers with a conservative calculation and weigh the pros and cons.

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How FPL Price Changes Work

Player prices in FPL fluctuate based on transfer activity:

Price Rises: If a player is transferred in heavily, their price can rise by £0.1m per day, up to a maximum of £0.3m per Gameweek.

Price Falls: Players being sold heavily can drop by the same amounts.

By acting early, managers can benefit from these changes—buying players before price rises and selling them before price drops.

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Conservative Swing Calculation Assumptions

1. Price Change Impact:

On average, a transfer results in a swing of £0.15m (accounting for the fact that not all price changes are maximised).

2. Transfers Per Week:

Managers typically make 1 transfer per week on average.

3. Season Length:

There are 38 gameweeks in a season.

The swing per week is calculated as:

Weekly Swing = Transfers Per Week x Price Change Per Transfer

Weekly Swing = 1 x £0.15 = £0.15

Over the season, the total swing is:

Season Swing = Weekly Swing x Number of Gameweeks

Season Swing = £0.15 x 38 = £5.7m

Adjusting for Realistic Gains

Not all price swings will be captured due to market unpredictability, injuries, or late decisions. Assuming managers capture only 75% of the theoretical swing, the realistic total is:

Realistic Season Swing = £5.7m x 0.75 = £4.28m

Thus, making early transfers could yield an additional £4m to £4.5m in squad value over the course of the season.

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Pros of Monday Night Transfers

1. Improved Budget Flexibility:

An increased squad value allows managers to afford more premium players and strengthen their team depth as the season progresses.

2. Early Market Advantage:

By acting before price changes, you can secure key players at their cheapest and avoid overpaying later.

3. Psychological Edge:

Watching your team’s value grow can boost confidence and provide more options for future transfers.

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Cons of Regular Early Transfers

1. Midweek Injury Risks:

Injuries in training, European matches, or domestic cup games can ruin your plans and force additional transfers or leave you short-handed.

2. Team News Uncertainty:

Waiting until Friday or Saturday ensures access to manager press conferences, injury updates, and tactical insights. Early transfers sacrifice this critical information.

3. Loss of Flexibility:

Locking in a transfer early leaves you unable to react to unexpected developments later in the week, such as injuries to other players.

4. Increased Chance of Wasted Transfers:

If an early transfer backfires due to unforeseen circumstances, you may need to take a -4 point hit to fix the issue, negating any financial gain.

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Is It Really Worth It?

Theoretical Gains:

Using conservative calculations (as shown above), making early transfers could provide an additional £4m to £4.5m in benefit from price swings. This budget increase can allow managers to afford premium assets or strengthen their bench.

Practical Risks

However, the risks associated with early transfers are significant:

Midweek injuries can render a new transfer useless.

Key updates from press conferences closer to the deadline often influence better decision-making.

Unforeseen circumstances may force corrective transfers, reducing the benefit of any budget gains.

For many managers, these risks outweigh the potential financial rewards. After all, a higher team value is helpful but does not directly contribute to points.

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A Balanced Approach

If you want to capture some of the benefits of early transfers without fully committing to the risks, consider this strategy:

1. Prioritise Low-Risk Early Transfers:

Make early moves for players unlikely to face midweek risks, such as goalkeepers or defenders.

2. Delay High-Risk Transfers:

For key players involved in European competitions or prone to rotation, wait until Friday or Saturday when more information is available.

3. Monitor Team News:

Stay on top of injury reports, fixtures, and transfer trends to make informed decisions.

4. Strengthen Your Bench:

Having a solid bench can mitigate the impact of unexpected absences, giving you more freedom to make early transfers.

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Conclusion

Making transfers on Monday night can yield up to £4m to £4.5m in additional squad value over a season. While this boost can provide financial flexibility, it comes with significant risks, including midweek injuries and the loss of critical information from press conferences.

For most FPL managers, patience is often the better strategy—waiting until Friday or Saturday ensures more informed decisions. A balanced approach, combining early transfers for safe moves with delayed decisions for key players, allows you to benefit from price changes while minimizing risks.

In the end, while building squad value and benefiting from price swings is useful, points will always trump pounds in the race for FPL success.